Probability chart / Blackjack
Blackjack Dealer Bust Probability By Upcard
Dealer bust probability depends on the upcard and table rules; low dealer cards often create different player decisions.
FormatChart
TopicBlackjack
Quick probability summary
Dealer bust probability depends on the upcard and table rules; low dealer cards often create different player decisions.
| Concept | Meaning | Blackjack note |
|---|---|---|
| Low variance | More frequent, smaller outcomes or simpler decisions | Better for beginners learning controls |
| Medium variance | Balanced decision pressure and outcome swings | Useful after rules are automatic |
| High variance | Rare outcomes, higher advertised payouts, or fast bust risk | Use only with strict limits |
| Myth risk | Streaks, predictors, formulas, and due outcomes | Treat as entertainment claims, not proof |
How to read the chart
The chart is educational. It helps compare relative risk and frequency, but it does not predict the next hand, spin, roll, cashout, or reveal. Use probability to avoid bad assumptions, not to justify larger stakes.
Common mistakes
- Standing on hard 16 against dealer 10 without understanding the tradeoff.
- Taking insurance routinely.
- Splitting tens because it feels exciting.